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CreateYourOwnPension.Org
The Mathematics of Drawdown Recovery
Losses and gains are mathematically asymmetric. The required gain to recover from a drawdown is always larger than the drawdown itself, and the gap widens as the drawdown grows.
Required Gain = (Loss % ÷ (100 − Loss %)) × 100
Here is how the numbers scale:
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A 10% drawdown requires an 11.1% gain to recover.
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A 20% drawdown requires a 25% gain.
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A 30% drawdown requires a 42.9% gain.
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A 50% drawdown requires a 100% gain.
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A 75% drawdown requires a 300% gain.
Sequence of Return Risk
The following are links to articles and resources about income planning and retirement.
Social Security Administration
Morningstar on biggest risk for new retirees
Kiplinger's - Retirement Red Zone
Kiplinger's - How to manage longevity risk
Morningstar - Sequence of Returns Risk
Forbes on 3 reasons annuities beat bonds
WSJ on relacing your bonds with annuities
Investment News - Annuities are critical piece
Investment News - T.Rowe Price study on two-pronged approach
Investment News - Best Candidates for Lifetime Income
The Alliance for Lifetime Income
Bankrate.com - lifetime income options
Fidelity's view on lifetime income
TIAA’s view on lifetime income
TIAA's retirement study - Bond vs Stock vs Annuity
T.Rowe Price whitepaper - two-pronged retirement approach
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